Psychics (and Animals) Predict Earthquakes: True or False? What Everyone "Knows" About Earthquakes

Comic art by Zeo (with slight modifications by Geotripper)

Well, let's see if I can't make a few (seismic) waves here. It's question number five in our brief quiz on what everybody "knows" about earthquakes in California (those things that are thought to be known, but which might not actually be true). These questions were the basis of a community lecture I gave last week. The question in this post is really about two different issues, so I am going to discuss the animals in the next post. So here is today's test question:

Psychics predict earthquakes: true or false?

The audience at the lecture last week was filled with skeptics and non-believers, to be frank, and came down firmly in favor of "false" for an answer. So they were a little surprised when I told them the actual answer:

TRUE!

They thought about it a moment, and realized that the statement is in fact true. Psychics predict earthquakes all the time. All the time, and then some more. Earthquakes are one of their most common predictions, more popular I think than predictions about aliens.

That leads to a revised question: Do psychic predictions about earthquakes come true?

My audience was on to me now, and there was a general murmer that psychic predictions are invariably wrong. I set them straight. I said "Psychics predict earthquakes all the time, and are almost invariably correct". I'm pretty sure there was a moment of silence before the audience started arguing the point with me.

I support my contention with a collection of predictions that I googled in about five minutes. I refuse to link to each of them because I have no interested in promoting their websites. If you want to find them, google the statement and it shouldn't take long to dig them up.

• Both earthquake and out of control fires will effect California causing devastation and loss [of] life. 
• There will be a violent earthquake, one of the strongest on record.[no location noted]
• My California earthquake prediction: yes, there WILL be an earthquake in California. I am not saying it will be along the San Andreas Fault or that it will be major. …I am also not saying when.
• I keep seeing the year 2011 like a pulsating animation within visions of major earth shifts in my home state of California. Dates perceived in months or years could be argued to have limited value in forecasting a time because we psychics move our consciousness in large spans of time and cover broad areas of locations and events.

Note how every one of these predictions came true. Oh, and my favorite, the shotgun prediction....

Wild Weather Predictions

1. Category five hurricane wipes out Miami.
2. The worst mudslides in California’s history will occur.
3. Mount St. Helens erupting.
4. Earthquake Seattle, Washington.
5. Earthquake Chicago, Illinois.
6. Part of the polar ice cap melts.
7. Wildfires spread to Beverley Hills and Los Angeles, Brentwood.
8. More tsunamis Sumatra Indonesia, Alaska, Hawaii and Japan.
9. A great earthquake in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego.
10. Earthquake Lake Tahoe.
11. Earthquake Toronto and Quebec.
12. Earthquake Oregon.
13. Earthquake Grand Canyon.
14. Earthquake New York, Alaska, Japan, Greece.
15. Earthquake British Columbia, China and Iran.
16. Tornado in California.
17. Floods Amsterdam, Holland, Rhine River, Germany, Bangladesh, Great Britain. Venice, Italy, Gulf Coast of Florida and France.
18. Tsunami Malibu, California.
19. Wildfires Greece, Australia, Texas, Hawaii.
20. Mudslides in India, California.
21. Typhoon in Taiwan.
22. Tornadoes Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas, Illinois, Tennessee.
23. Great earthquake Rome and Naples, Italy.
24. Huge snowstorm and blizzards up the eastern seaboard affecting the great lakes – Toronto, Chicago, New York, Boston, etc.
25. Earthquake Yosemite and Yellowstone Park.

Note how many of these predictions haven't happened yet. Still, many will absolutely take place, allowing the psychic responsible for this list to claim broad success in his or her psychic powers.

Soooo...psychics accurately predict earthquakes. Well, guess what? I can predict earthquakes too! And I can be more specific than the average psychic. Here goes..

I predict that within the next week:

• 200 earthquakes will occur in California,
• Of these, there will be a magnitude 4 quake in southern California, most likely in the Colorado Desert near Salton Sea.
• There will be a magnitude 3 earthquake in northern California, most likely north of the Bay Area, somewhere around Clear Lake.
• There will be a larger quake at the Vanuatu Islands in the Pacific Ocean, quite possibly in the magnitude 6 range.
• There will be a magnitude 6 earthquake offshore of Japan.

I think I am going to be right. You are welcome to keep count and when the quakes happen you can hail me as a psychic earthquake predictor.

You can do that, but please note that my predictions have something in common with psychic predictions: the predictions are totally and absolutely useless to anybody.  They are about as useful as predicting that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Why? Because like the sun rising, earthquakes happen all the time, and they tend to happen in the same general places, mainly along tectonic plate boundaries (along with a few near hot spots like Hawaii or Yellowstone). It sounds impressive that 200 earthquakes will happen over the next week in California, but that happens nearly every week. Last week there were actually more, about 370.

Earthquake prediction is a serious business. On the one hand, a timely prediction can save lives. But a prediction made by a credible source that doesn't come to pass is a real problem. Like the boy who called "wolf" once too often, later predictions would be ignored. Charlatans who make spurious predictions can cause panic and unnecessary stress in an uninformed population (such a prediction in 1990 caused the population of St. Louis and surrounding region to close down businesses and leave town, and also caused a media circus).

An earthquake prediction, in order to save lives, must have three elements:

• the time (within a few days at most)
• the location (specific)
• the magnitude and depth

No psychic ever provides such information, which proves the useless nature of their "predictions". No one is in a position to predict earthquakes with such precision, including seismologists. Anyone who claims some special power of prediction is lying or deluded. No one has ever once saved lives with such predictions (the one successful prediction,ever, of a quake that saved lives, in China in 1975, was based on tangible evidence, and no psychic powers were claimed or invoked).

There is a form of a useful prediction regarding earthquakes. That will be discussed in a post in the very near future (that's a prediction that I am making!)

Psychics: give up the earthquakes. Stick to the lives of the Hollywood stars. They're more predictable anyway.

In an Earthquake, the Ground Opens up and Swallows People: True or False? What everyone "knows" about earthquakes

It's question #4 of our short series on what everyone "knows" about California earthquakes (a bit out of order, but whatever). The question:

In an earthquake, the ground opens up and swallows people: true or false?

I'm actually not sure how the crowd responded to this one at my lecture the other night, but they quickly appreciated my answer to the question:

True, but only in Hollywood....

Indeed, it is a staple that if an earthquake happens in a movie, somebody is going to be hanging by their fingernails on the edge of a vast deep chasm that has opened up beneath their feet. In the third Indiana Jones movie, for instance, and in last year's 2012, again, and again, and again. And again.

For the reality-based world, the possibility of being swallowed up in the earth during an earthquake is far more unlikely. The problem is that earthquakes are generated by the stress built up along fault lines where vast blocks of rocky crust are in contact. The shaking begins when the rocks rupture and begin slipping. They don't separate. In some faults (thrusts) the stress is compressional and in others (strike-slip) the stress is lateral. Not much chance of openings occurring in either situation. The third type of fault, termed normal faulting, the stress is extensional, which could conceivably result in the stretching of the crust and formation of fissures, but more often, one side slips downward, as can be seen in the picture below, from the 1954 Fairview Peak earthquake in Nevada.

It is true that small fissures will open along fault ruptures in some situations. I saw many of these when I visited the Landers area a week after the 7.3 magnitude earthquake in 1992. The fissures were only a few inches across and no more than a foot or so in depth. Geologist Mary Hill does mention one instance where someone was killed in a fissure that opened up in a 1948 quake in Japan, but that hardly represents a pattern.

One other effect of large earthquakes is the production of slope failures and landslides, during which large fissures might open up. The Turnagain Heights liquefaction event during the Alaska earthquake of 1964 is a stunning example. Weak saturated sediments underneath the housing project were severely shaken, causing the whole landscape to break up and flow towards the adjacent bay, destroying the dwellings at the surface (I've included two pictures derived from my old slide collection, but I'm afraid I don't know who to attribute them to; I will add credit if someone can clue me in. They may be from a USGS collection).

In the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, there were not any claims of swallowed people that I know of, but there is the famous tail/tale of Shafter's cow, which was swallowed up by the San Andreas fault. In the aftermath, only the poor bovine's tail could be seen at the surface. The story apparently became widespread, but in a letter from 1966, some locals recalled that the poor cow had actually died the night before. The earthquake produced a convenient fissure, the farmer tossed in the carcass, and when reporters showed up asking questions about the poor animal, farmer Shafter decided not to kill a "good story".

10 Years in Afghanistan: Does Anyone Care?

October 7 will mark the tenth year that the United States has been involved in the war in Afghanistan. 1,800 U.S. soldiers are dead, and the rate of casualties has been increasing. Does anyone care?

I know there are lots of arguments about the justification for the war, and some of them are, or at least were at one time, valid. I simply question the right of wizened old white men being given the right of sending our troops in harm's way with no threat to themselves and their families and without any sense of sacrifice. I am even more horrified that some of the decision-makers actually derive financial benefits by going to war (can anyone say "Halliburton" and "Cheney"?).

A decision to go to war should be the most profound choice a president or congress should ever make. They should be forced to ask themselves "Is this war important enough that I would send my own children to the front lines?" It is so much easier to make these decisions when the young men and women you have sentenced to death belong to families other than your own.

If this seems unreasonable to our rich and well-connected politicians, I seem to recall the Great Britain regularly has members of the royal family in their military ranks. And I don't think that the Texas Air National Guard counts as military service.

But that's just my opinion. Our troops should be home....


Fortunate Son, by John C. Fogarty

Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Ooh, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the chief"
Ooh, they point the cannon at you, Lord
It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no senator's son, son
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

Yeah!
Some folks are born silver spoon in hand
Lord, don't they help themselves, oh
But when the taxman comes to the door
Lord, the house looks like a rummage sale, yes

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son, no
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, no

Some folks inherit star spangled eyes
Ooh, they send you down to war, Lord
And when you ask them, "How much should we give?"
Ooh, they only answer More! more! more! yoh

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no military son, son
It ain't me, it ain't me; I ain't no fortunate one, one

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no fortunate one, no no no
It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no fortunate son, no no no

California has the Biggest and Mostest Quakes in the World! True or False? What Everyone "Knows" About Earthquakes

Art by Zeo

I guess I should point out that although my public lecture last week on earthquakes was done in a somewhat light-hearted manner, befitting an audience that included quite a few children, I also pointed out the deadly serious nature of disastrous earthquakes. So please don't think that the comic art above is belittling the loss of life and property in horrible events like that which struck Japan this year. It is actually a critique of the way that news is reported in American media, especially cable news (I'm talking about you, CNN and FOX), and local news outlets.

The question of the day on our little quiz on what everybody "knows" about earthquakes:

California has the biggest and the mostest earthquakes in the world. True or False?

I know that "mostest" is not really a word, but it somehow seems to fit well in the question of the day (a little like Stephen Colbert's 'truthiness'). So, what is the answer? My California audience was a little divided on this one, but mostly fell into the "false" camp.

So let's check on some data. If you look at the maps in the previous post, you can see that California certainly has a great many earthquakes, perhaps 10,000-15,000 year, and some of them are rather considerable.

There have been three earthquakes in the last 150 years that are thought to have approached magnitude 8 in size: 1857 at Fort Tejon, 1872 at Lone Pine, and 1906 in San Francisco.

San Francisco earthquake of 1906

There have been about two dozen magnitude 7 quakes in the same time period, including last year's El Mayor-Cucapah quake in Baja (7.2), the 1999 Hector quake (7.1), and the 1992 Landers quake (7.3).

Fault scarp from 1992 Landers earthquake. Photo by Garry Hayes

There have been at least 50 quakes greater than magnitude 6.5, meaning that a potentially damaging quake occurs somewhere in California roughly every two or three years. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake and 1994 Northridge quakes caused damage measured in the tens of billions of dollars, and killed dozens of people.

Those are a lot of earthquakes. So let's take the "biggest" issue first. The quake in Japan that destroyed the nuclear power plant and produced the Pacific-wide tsunami was magnitude 9.0. The quake in Sumatra in 2004 that produced the horrific tsunami in the Indian Ocean was magnitude 9.1. So, California doesn't have the biggest earthquakes. Not even close (but check for the wild card issue at the end of this post).

There is a great deal of confusion about the nature of the magnitude scale for measuring earthquakes. It is not a 1-10 scale, for instance, even though literally all recorded earthquakes fall within that range. It is open-ended, and quakes of greater than magnitude 10 are technically possible, but not likely from terrestrial origin. It would take the impact of an asteroid miles across to cause a quake larger than about 9.5 on the magnitude scale.

The biggest confusion concerns the relative size of quakes. Magnitude is a measure of the energy released when an earthquake strikes. A magnitude 9 quake is not just a little bit bigger than a magnitude 8. It is exponentially larger, by a factor of 32.  To put it a different way, a magnitude 9 quake releases an amount of energy that is equivalent to 32 magnitude 8 earthquakes!

It gets worse: Since a 9 is 32 times more than an 8, and an 8 is 32 times bigger than a 7, a magnitude 9 quake is more than 1000 times larger than a 7 (32x32).

A magnitude 9 quake is the energy equivalent of more than 1,000 magnitude 7 earthquakes...

Put another way: the Japan 9.0 quake released more energy than all of California's historical earthquakes combined.

The story is pretty much the same with the total number of earthquakes. California has a great many smaller quakes, but just about any subduction zone around the world has more. Even in the United States, Alaska has more earthquakes than California (as well as the second-largest earthquake ever recorded in the world, the 9.3 magnitude Good Friday quake of 1964).

So why does California get this reputation of having an inordinate number of earthquakes? I feel compelled to blame the way news is reported in this country. Cable and local news coverage of earthquakes is atrocious for the most part, with badly misinformed reporters and news-readers (I don't consider them to be news anchors or journalists anymore). There is a tendency to display blood and gore over actual conditions on the ground. The media will spend weeks talking about an earthquake in Los Angeles or San Francisco that kills a few people and practically ignore monumental tragedies in Pakistan or Iran where tens of thousands of people have died.

There is a beautifully done parody of practically every overblown news story ever seen on television on Onion News. The language is not safe for work, but imagine the reporters saying earthquake instead of b...sh.t and you get the idea of how it all works.



As mentioned above, there is one wild card in the possibility of large earthquakes hitting California. The state does in fact have a subduction zone that is active north of Fortuna and Eureka. It is part of the Cascadia subduction zone that threatens Oregon and Washington. There is good evidence that a magnitude 9 earthquake took place along the system in 1700, and there is no reason to think that the fault system is any less dangerous now.

All California Earthquakes Happen on the San Andreas Fault: Quiz Question #2

An offset curb on the Calaveras fault in Hollister, CA. It isn't the San Andreas...

Question #2 on our short quiz on what everyone "knows" about earthquakes was:

All California earthquakes happen on the San Andreas fault - True or False?

The crowd at my recent lecture, California residents all, were up to date on this one. Not a single audience member said "true", and they were right. On the other hand, lots of people don't live in California, and they might not be quite as knowledgeable about all of California's faults (double entendre intended). So a few illustrations may be helpful. First of all, where do the earthquakes in California happen? See the map below...

Map courtesy of NDEDC, UC Berkeley.  Follow the link for an interactive version.

A quick look at the seismicity between 1970 and 2003 shows that earthquakes occur over much of California, and that the San Andreas fault is not even one of the most active. Long sections show little or no activity, meaning that stress is building up, leading to powerful quakes in the future.

But what about the biggest quakes? A map that concentrates only on larger quakes, magnitude 5 and above, shows that large damaging quakes also happen on faults other than the San Andreas (see the map below). Of California's three biggest historical quakes, only two were on the San Andreas. The 1872 Lone Pine quake resulted from movement on the Owens Valley fault east of the Sierra Nevada.

Map courtesy of NCNDE, UC Berkeley. Follow the link for an interactive map.

The good news for those of us who live in the flat, dusty, boring Central Valley is to note how few earthquakes, big or little, ever happen near us. I haven't actually felt an earthquake here since the early 1990s, although most of my students felt one during a class break in 2007. Read the story here, and realize my explanation of magnitude and intensity was misunderstood (magnitude and intensity are two entirely different ways of measuring earthquakes).

California is Going to Fall into the Sea! Quiz Question #1

Comic art courtesy of Zeo

Thursday, while preparing for my public lecture on earthquakes and California, I blogged a short true-false quiz that I was going to present to my audience. We had a great time on Friday night, I think. 300 community members came out on a Friday night to see a science lecture! Anyway, here was the first of the questions:

California is going to fall into the sea: true or false?

This is one of those persistent statements about California earthquakes that everyone "knows", even if they live in New Jersey. I had a pretty savvy audience; they had a better than average understanding of earthquakes, and answered with the obvious answer: false.

I then offered up the correct answer:

True!

In fact, not only is it going to happen, it already has.

Check out the NASA photo above. When we speak of California, we often forget that most people are only thinking of one part of California: Alta California (upper California). The image above reminds us that Baja ("Lower") California is also part of our geography. And Baja has already fallen into the Pacific Ocean, in a reasonable interpretation of the statement. Baja was once connected to the Mexican mainland, and has been a peninsula for only the last four million years or so. It is the beginning of a massive rift that will ultimately tear Alta California apart, and send it traveling northwest at all of two inches a year. The two inches per year will actually be taken up by large earthquakes shifting the landscape 10-15 feet every century or so.

In 20 million years, the Dodgers and Giants will again be crosstown rivals (yes, I stole this joke from the DVD "Planet Earth"). In 70 million years, California may slam into the south margin of Alaska, pushing up another high mountain range.

Want to see how this happened? Tanya Atwater of UCSB, the plate tectonics pioneer who figured out the origin of the San Andreas fault, has a series of excellent animations available for download at this site. If you have a fast connection, try this one (50 mb).

Courtesy of Tanya Atwater. See the animation here.

If you have a slower connection, this animation is 20 mb. Both animations show the complex interactions of the continental margin, with some parts being rotated, and others moving northwest along the San Andreas. And Baja California opening up to form a new seaway, the Gulf of California.

So indeed, it could be a good idea to buy up some property in the western Mojave Desert to be ready for your oceanfront views...in ten million years...if you want to wait that long.

What? You thought the question was about California falling into the sea during one earthquake? Really? Like the movie 2012? Not gonna happen. That's tabloid stuff. Aliens kidnapped me last week too.

Come and See Joshua Tree National Park with the Far Western Section of NAGT, November 11-13

(Cross-posted with minor edits from Teaching the Earth Sciences, the blog of the Far Western Section of the National Association of Geoscience Teachers)

Joshua Tree National Park is one of the most unique desert environments to be found anywhere in North America (See a representative journey with Geotripper here). Sitting astride the boundary zone between the Mojave and Sonoran deserts, the park displays a startling variety of plant and animal species, and stunning displays of a Proterozoic metamorphic complex and Mesozoic plutonic rocks. It is a great place to learn about geology.

Copper Mountain College will be the host for the Fall 2011 meeting, which will include explorations of the park, and a journey to the interior of the Mojave to see the scarps from the 1992 Landers earthquake, still starkly obvious after two decades. The magnitude 7.3 quake killed two and produced a fracture that crossed fifty miles of desert.

The Far Western Section of the National Association of Geoscience Teachers invites anyone interested in the geological sciences to join them, including students (especially students!). Membership in NAGT is not required. This is a wonderful opportunity to see a fascinating corner of California's geology, and a chance to meet earth science teachers from all over California and Nevada (Hawaii is in our section too). It is an exciting and economic way to see some of southern California's most incredible geology.

Friday November 11, 2011

6:00 PM Meet at Copper Mountain College Bell Center Community Room for Registration 

(On-site registration cost estimate is $50.)

7:00 PM NAGT Far Western Section Board Meeting

8:00 - 9:00 PM Registration

Saturday November 12, 2011

8:00 - 10:00 AM Meet at the Bell Center Community Room for Registration

10:00 AM – 5:00 PM Field Trips (Choose One)

Field Trip Number 1

Landers Earthquake: Scarps still visible after 20 years plus Pioneer Town: Dating of a Miocene(?) erosional surface – Bob Reynolds

Field Trip Number 2 

Geology of Joshua Tree National Park – Bruce Bridenbecker

Presentation: 6:00 – 9:00 PM Evening Social with Lecture on Mines and Mining in Joshua Tree National Park - Dee Trent

Sunday November 13, 2011

8:00 AM Meet at Bell Center Parking Lot for Field Trip to Desert Queen Mine – Dee Trent

Field Trip should conclude by 2:00 or 3:00 PM.                                           

Logistics:

Joshua Tree Area Services

For a directory of area motels and restaurants visit the Joshua Tree Chamber of Commerce Web Site at http://www.joshuatreechamber.org/.

Joshua Tree Area Camping

Indian Cove is located 13 miles east of Joshua Tree Village and 10 miles west of Twentynine Palms on the north side of the Wonderland of Rocks. Indian Cove Road dead-ends at this secluded area. Campers register at the ranger station located at the entrance to the Indian Cove area. Water is also available there.

Contact Bruce Bridenbecker for additional information.