Strange Doings in the Sky Today. What the Heck is a Circumzenithal Arc?

We live our lives never truly knowing when the day comes that something remarkable happens. I was doing totally normal errands today in the middle of town when I saw a sun dog, a common enough occurrence, but it was so bright I decided to snap a shot. But as I got out of the car, I realized something more complex had become visible, something I'm fairly sure I've never seen before. The sun dogs were connected to a halo around the sun, but at the top was an "upside-down" rainbow, like a giant smile in the sky.

I made use of a highly technological sun-blocking tool that I have in my pockets sometimes to try and bring out the colors a little better. In my capacity as an earth science instructor I generally teach about climate and weather, but phenomena related to the refraction of light off hexagonal ice crystals in the upper atmosphere gets lost in the concerns over global climate change and that sort of thing. So I haven't kept up the finer details of atmospheric refraction effects, and had to get a refresher about what I was seeing.

Source: Meteorology Today by Don Ahrens

There were five phenomena happening at once here, all related to the refraction of light in ice crystals in the upper atmosphere: a 22 degree halo, part of a 46 degree halo, two sun dogs, an upper tangent arc, and high above, the circumzenithal arc (the upside-down "rainbow"). I read that the arcs are not uncommon, but are noticed less because they tend to occur overhead where people don't tend to look. I didn't see it myself until I stopped on the way home to try and catch the arc again. It can be seen in the picture below.

Beautiful things can find you any time. You just need to watch for them!
 

About That Bucket List...What Would You Do To See These Places?

Horseshoe Bend on the Colorado River

So...about that bucket list of yours. 

Surely you have one. If you don't, what's keeping you from making one? Here's a version I promoted a few years back (I've made it to around 70% of them so far and feel exceedingly lucky to have been able to do so).

In any case, how many of the following are (or should be) on your personal list? Possibly Grand Canyon, Zion, Bryce Canyon, Arches, Petrified Forest, Capitol Reef, Yosemite, Great Basin, or Canyonlands National Parks? What about Ancestral Pueblo cliff dwellings at places like Bear's Ears or Grand Staircase-Escalante? Finding ancient petroglyphs along the Colorado River? Or searching for dinosaur bones? How would your life be changed if you could somehow do all these things...in one trip? It's possible!

Grand Canyon National Park

There is no place on this planet like the Colorado Plateau. It's hard to find anyplace else on Earth where the crust remained relatively stable for upwards of a billion years, accumulating several miles of horizontal sediments, only to be lifted up rapidly in the last few million. The Colorado River and her tributaries then stripped away much of the sedimentary cover, and cut deep into the underlying metamorphic rocks. Those metamorphic rocks record a violent geologic history of colliding landmasses and mountain-building. The resulting landscape is one of the most beautiful regions imaginable.

Angels Landing Trail in Zion National Park, Utah

The plateau country is a training ground for geologists and earth scientists, and has been since the days of John Wesley Powell and Joseph Ives, who were the first to lead research parties into the region (they didn't "discover" the plateau, of course; Native Americans have known the region for thousands of years). If you are curious about learning geology in this incredible region, you might consider joining us as a student (of any age) on our geology field studies course Geology 191: Geology of the Colorado Plateau, offered under the auspices of Modesto Junior College in Modesto, California. The course is designed to fulfil the curiosity and build the skills of lay geologists and archaeologists as well.

Mesa Arch in Canyonlands National Park

Our field course will be a grand loop through the plateau country, with investigations of the Mojave National Scenic Preserve, Grand Canyon, Zion, Bryce Canyon, Arches, Canyonlands, Petrified Forest, Capitol Reef, Great Basin and Yosemite National Parks, as well as many monuments, including Bear's Ears, Grand Staircase-Escalante, Natural Bridges, Navajo, and Hovenweep. It will be an unforgettable two week trip from June 3-17, 2024, beginning and ending in Modesto, California. Further information will be found soon here and at my school website. 

Petroglyphs on the plateau

It's not a comfortable trip...we travel in school vans (which of course are known for their luxuriousness!), we camp every night, and the days can be hot, windy, cold, or stormy, and we are out in the middle of anything that happens. But we are staying in beautiful places each night, and there are even showers and laundry available every third day or so! Extensive hiking is not required, but there will be many chances to explore the trails in each park and monument.

Petrified Forest National Park

Geology 191 is a 3-semester-unit course. By end of the course, you will be able to see the landscape the way geologists do: by identifying rocks, minerals and fossils, and interpreting the geological history of an area by working out the sequence of events as exposed in outcrops. If you are a science teacher, you will come home with a collection of photographs that illustrate most of the important principles of geology, and a selection of rocks, minerals and fossils that will make a great classroom teaching tool (legally collected, of course; there are many localities outside of protected parks from which to collect samples). You will also gain some mastery of the archaeology and culture of the plateau region, the home of the Ancestral Puebloans, the Fremont people, the Navajo, the Utes, and others.

Canyonlands National Park, Utah

The cost of the trip (still to be officially determined) will be about $1,100 plus the cost of tuition (Currently $46 per unit for California residents, and around $225 per unit for out-of-state residents). The cost includes transportation, food, camp fees, and entrance fees. Participants would want to bring a few dollars along for showers, laundry, and souvenirs.  The food is tasty and plentiful (everyone helps cook and clean!), and the school vans...are vans.

House-on-Fire Ruin, Bear's Ears National Monument

For those of you who live in the Modesto region, we are having an organizational meeting in April which will also be available as a Zoom session. Details will be provided later on.

If you are not in the area, we will be glad to arrange for transportation from nearby airports and train stations (we actually have an Amtrak station in town). Enrollment can be completed online once you are registered with the college (http://www.mjc.edu). Please contact me with any questions you may have.

Bryce Canyon National Park

Hope to see you out there, back of beyond!

The Simultaneous Seasons of California (and a peek at Half Dome)

It was a beautiful Christmas day here in the Central Valley, one of the prettiest I can recall. The storm that blew through yesterday was gone, and the winds were enough to prevent the fog from setting in. I took a walk along the Tuolumne River Parkway Trail in Waterford, and was gifted one of those rarest of things: a clear view of the beautiful Sierra Nevada. And of course it was the moment of three simultaneous seasons of California.

Yes, it's that time of year in California when three seasons occur at once. Sure, the calendar says it's winter and all, and that is certainly true in the high country of the Sierra, buried under feet of snow. But here in the valley, the last leaves are finally falling from the Valley Oak trees along the river, but with the rain has come the promise of spring as the grass sprouts and spreads a layer of green along the bluffs above the Tuolumne River.

The gift of enjoying the panorama of the Sierra Nevada Crest is rare in our valley. Although my little town sits at the very edge of the Sierra Nevada foothills, the mountain range is a tilted block of crust that slopes gently westward. As a consequence, the high peaks of the Sierra Nevada lie 40-50 miles away. The view of the peaks is generally obscured most of the time, for reasons both natural and artificial. In winter, an inversion layer develops that keeps a barrier of fog and mist that prevents any viewing of the mountains. In the summer and fall, dust and smog obscure the view. It is most often at the end of storms that the mountains are revealed in their full glory like they were today.

The Tuolumne River is one of the two main rivers that drain Yosemite National Park (the Merced River is the other. So the view from my trail encompasses much of the roughly 1,000 square miles of the park (for perspective, Yosemite Valley itself is only about 7 square miles). The view above includes most of the high peaks of the park, including the highest (Mt. Lyell). The diagram below, courtesy of CalTopo, provides the names of the peaks seen in the photo above.

Analysis courtesy of CalTopo

Amazingly enough, Half Dome, Sentinel Dome, and El Capitan in Yosemite Valley are also visible! It's true that you cannot see very much of these iconic rocks, but their summits peek out above the intervening ridges. One generally needs binoculars or a powerful zoom to spy them. 

Still not obvious? I've outlined the top of Half Dome below, with the ridge of El Capitan below and slightly right. There is a much better view to be had of Half Dome from about 5 miles south of the trail near the junction of Keyes Road and S. Hickman Road. It's been a bit of fun arguing over the years with people who are absolutely sure that Half Dome can't be seen from the valley for all kinds of logical reasons (the photos of course are photoshopped or whatever, which by the way is not a skill that I have).

In any case, the view was one of the best gifts of this beautiful day. I hope your Christmas and other celebrations were wonderful, and that you have a great new year! Thanks for reading!

In the Heart of the Devil: The Damning of Del Puerto Canyon

This beautiful canyon is under serious threat

California geology is complicated. Unlike any other state, it is affected by the interactions of all three kinds of plate boundaries: divergent (the crust pulling apart), convergent (the crust compressing together), and transform (the crust sliding laterally). All of these forces have formed a complex landscape with incredible scenery unlike any other place in the world. 

The Coast Ranges province is one of those unique regions. Extending some 400 miles from the Oregon border to the Transverse Ranges near Point Conception, it is one of the least familiar parts of California (aside from the Pacific Highway 1 corridor through Big Sur and the Marin Headlands/Point Reyes region). The province is defined by a series of individual mountain ranges that trend roughly parallel to the coast, but the variation in rock types and structure is astounding. Within the province there are active volcanic fields, older inactive volcanoes, vast tracts of tilted sedimentary rocks, exposures of twisted and folded rocks formed deep within subduction zone complexes, and even a displaced section of Sierra Nevada granitic crust. Numerous active faults slice through the province, including many of California's most dangerous: the San Andreas, the Hayward, the Calaveras, and many others.

We just explored the heart of the devil: the so-called Diablo Range. It is one of the largest individual ranges in the province, running for around 150 miles from Mt. Diablo and the Carquinez Strait on the north to the Coalinga area in the south. The region is largely undeveloped, and few paved roads cross range. We followed one of those few roads, the one that traverses Del Puerto Canyon. It's a one-of-a-kind experience, the equivalent of driving into and through the crust of the Earth and into the mantle below. It is the path to the nether-world that has often been called the home of the devil.

Del Puerto Canyon lies just west of the Central Valley town of Patterson. A paved road, state route 130, connects Patterson with the Santa Clara Valley, but anyone thinking it would make a shortcut between the two localities is in for a rude awakening: curvy, narrow, with steep drop-offs, it is not a road for the faint-of-heart. It also has some extraordinary scenery and some absolutely fascinating geology. 

The lower canyon exposes 25,000 feet of late Mesozoic and early Paleogene marine sediments deposited in the forearc basin of the Cordilleran subduction zone that stretched the length of California. The middle stretches reveal the oceanic crust on which the sediments were deposited, the Coast Range ophiolite (the second-most complete section found in California). The uppermost canyon is the strangest environment of all, consisting of rocks that were once part of the Earth's mantle. The rocks are interesting, and so are the plants that survive on the ultramafic soils.

One of our students discovered an ammonite fossil on this trip!

The canyon also has a place in the history of California paleontology. The 25,000 feet of oceanic sediments provide an extensive record of fossil species, including the clams, snails, ammonites and shark teeth that are expected in such environments. Mesozoic marine reptiles have also been found in the region, including plesiosaurs, ichthyosaurs, and a new species of mosasaur, Plotosaurus bennisoni. The canyon was also the site of the discovery of California's first dinosaur, a species of duckbilled dinosaur called Saurolophus. It was discovered by 16-year-old Al Bennison of Gustine in 1936. We found a single fossil this trip, an ammonite. Someday, it'll be a dinosaur, right?

To me, the most interesting rocks are found in the upper canyon. The mantle of the Earth is a 1,800-mile-thick layer that starts at a depth of 15 or 20 miles beneath the continental crust. It is generally composed of a rock called peridotite or dunite, made up of the mineral olivine with varying amounts of pyroxene and various ores of chrome, mercury, magnesium, and copper. Peridotite is chemically unstable in surface conditions and alters mostly to serpentine. Many of the rocks we observed showed some degree of alteration. The rock below that looks like alligator skin (below) is composed of fractured chunks of pyroxene (the reddish-brown) and serpentine (the green fracture filling).

In a few spots one can find some relatively unaltered peridotite (below).

We also found some samples of chromite ore. Chrome contributes to the production of stainless steel and has applications in forming armor. During peacetime, there are cheaper sources of chrome overseas, but during wars the supplies may be cut off. During the world wars, chromite was mined in the upper canyon and transported by rail down the canyon to Patterson to be processed.

The little black grains are chromite

The upper canyon was also a source of cinnabar, a mercury sulfide mineral. Despite its toxic nature, mercury was a critical component in the processing of gold ores during the Gold Rush. Miners could often make a good wage mining the ores, but they would do so at great risk to their health. Luckily the temptation to gather mercury ore was not possible as the mine properties are fenced off.

The last part of our journey is the saddest. The lower canyon, the first five-and-a-half miles, is under threat. A local irrigation district is intent on building a reservoir that will flood much of the canyon under hundreds of feet of water. It will serve no purpose other than to store excess water from the California Water Project (in the rare years when such excess is available). It would then be used in subsequent drought years. In other words, it would be an evaporation pond, a waste of water. There would be no recreational facilities. Numerous archaeological sites would be flooded, and precious prairie and riparian ecosystems would be destroyed.

Del Puerto, ("the Gate") Credit: Elias Funez, Save Del Puerto Canyon

There are geological concerns. The dam itself would be constructed a quarter mile from a potentially active fault system (there was an earthquake swarm in the canyon earlier this year). There are seven gigantic earthflows and slumps, one a mile long, that would be partially inundated and potentially reactivated. And it's true I'm not an engineering geologist, but I question the stability of the shale, siltstone and sandstone that the dam abutments would be anchored in. I wasn't reassured by the environmental impact report.

In any case, there is community opposition to this misguided plan. It will do nothing to benefit the local community even while it threatens nearby cities. If you would like to learn more, and support efforts to stop this boondoggle project, please contact the organization Save Del Puerto Canyon. It would be such a shame to destroy yet another beautiful place in service to economic benefits for the very few.

 

What We All Think We Know: Myths and Misconceptions about California and Earthquakes for the Day of the Great Shake-Out!

Today is the Great Shake-Out in California: At 10:17 AM, around 10.5 MILLION people will participate in a statewide earthquake drill. This is also the 35th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake that caused so much damage in the San Francisco Bay-Santa Cruz region, and given that many people in northern California weren't even born by then, and others have moved in, it helps to be reminded that earthquakes are a fact of life in our fair state (and our state is quite fair because of the long-term activity of earthquakes: it's how our mountains formed). 

It starts with a modest little quiz....

True or False?

• California is going to fall into the Pacific Ocean
• The San Andreas fault causes all California earthquakes
• California has more earthquakes and bigger earthquakes than anywhere else
• The ground opens up and swallows people during earthquakes
• Psychics and animals predict earthquakes
• We in California are waiting for the "BIG ONE"

Let's work through some of the answers...

Comic art courtesy of Zeo

California is going to fall into the sea: true or false?

This is one of those persistent statements about California earthquakes that everyone "knows", even if they live in New Jersey. Many people would say: false.

Here's the correct answer:

True!

In fact, not only is it going to happen, it already has.

Check out the NASA photo above. When we speak of California, we often forget that most people are only thinking of one part of California: Alta California (upper California). The image above reminds us that Baja ("Lower") California is also part of our geography. And Baja has already "fallen" into the Pacific Ocean, in a reasonable interpretation of the statement. Baja was once connected to the Mexican mainland, and has been a peninsula for only the last four million years or so. It is the beginning of a massive rift that will ultimately tear Alta California apart, and send it traveling northwest at all of two inches a year. The two inches per year will actually be taken up by large earthquakes shifting the landscape 10-15 feet every century or so.

In 20 million years, the Dodgers and Giants will again be crosstown rivals (yes, I stole this joke from the DVD "Planet Earth"). In 70 million years, California may slam into the south margin of Alaska, pushing up another high mountain range.

Want to see how this happened? Tanya Atwater of UCSB, the plate tectonics pioneer who figured out the origin of the San Andreas fault, has a series of excellent animations available for download at this site. If you have a fast connection, try this one (50 mb).

Courtesy of Tanya Atwater. See the animation here.

If you have a slower connection, this animation is 20 mb. Both animations show the complex interactions of the continental margin, with some parts being rotated, and others moving northwest along the San Andreas. And Baja California opening up to form a new seaway, the Gulf of California.

So indeed, it could be a good idea to buy up some property in the western Mojave Desert to be ready for your oceanfront views...in ten million years...if you want to wait that long.

What? You thought the question was about California falling into the sea during one earthquake? Really? Like the movie 2012? Not gonna happen. That's tabloid stuff. Aliens kidnapped me last week too.

Art by Zeo

By the way, please don't think that the comic art above is belittling the loss of life and property in horrible events like that which struck Japan last year. It is actually a critique of the way that news is reported in American media, especially cable news (I'm talking about you, CNN and FOX), and local news outlets.

Question #2 on our short quiz is:

All California earthquakes happen on the San Andreas fault - True or False?

A crowd at a recent lecture I gave, California residents all, were up to date on this one. Not a single audience member said "true", and they were right. On the other hand, lots of people don't live in California, and they might not be quite as knowledgeable about all of California's faults (double entendre intended). So a few illustrations may be helpful. First of all, where do the earthquakes in California happen? See the map below...

Map courtesy of NDEDC, UC Berkeley.  Follow the link for an interactive version.

A quick look at the seismicity between 1970 and 2003 shows that earthquakes occur over much of California, and that the San Andreas fault is not even one of the most active. Long sections show little or no activity, meaning that stress is building up, leading to powerful quakes in the future.

But what about the biggest quakes? A map that concentrates only on larger quakes, magnitude 5 and above, shows that large damaging quakes also happen on faults other than the San Andreas (see the map below). Of California's three biggest historical quakes, only two were on the San Andreas. The 1872 Lone Pine quake resulted from movement on the Owens Valley fault east of the Sierra Nevada.

Map courtesy of NCNDE, UC Berkeley. Follow the link for an interactive map.

The good news for those of us who live in the flat, dusty, boring Central Valley is to note how few earthquakes, big or little, ever happen near us. I haven't actually felt an earthquake here since the early 1990s, although most of my students felt one during a class break in 2007. Read the story here, and realize my explanation of magnitude and intensity was misunderstood (magnitude and intensity are two entirely different ways of measuring earthquakes).

Question three: California has the biggest and the mostest earthquakes in the world. True or False?

I know that "mostest" is not really a word, but it somehow seems to fit well in the question of the day (a little like Stephen Colbert's 'truthiness'). So, what is the answer? My California audience is usually a little divided on this one, but mostly fall into the "false" camp.

So let's check on some data. If you look at the maps above, you can see that California certainly has a great many earthquakes, perhaps 10,000-15,000 year, and some of them are rather considerable.

There have been three earthquakes in the last 150 years that are thought to have approached magnitude 8 in size: 1857 at Fort Tejon, 1872 at Lone Pine, and 1906 in San Francisco.

San Francisco earthquake of 1906

There have been about two dozen magnitude 7 quakes in the same time period, including last year's El Mayor-Cucapah quake in Baja (7.2), the 1999 Hector quake (7.1), and the 1992 Landers quake (7.3).

Fault scarp from 1992 Landers earthquake. Photo by Garry Hayes

There have been at least 50 quakes greater than magnitude 6.5, meaning that a potentially damaging quake occurs somewhere in California roughly every two or three years. The 1989 Loma Prieta quake and 1994 Northridge quakes caused damage measured in the tens of billions of dollars, and killed dozens of people.

Those are a lot of earthquakes. So let's take the "biggest" issue first. The quake in Japan that destroyed the nuclear power plant and produced the Pacific-wide tsunami was magnitude 9.0. The quake in Sumatra in 2004 that produced the horrific tsunami in the Indian Ocean was magnitude 9.1. So, California doesn't have the biggest earthquakes. Not even close (but check for the wild card issue below, however).

There is a great deal of confusion about the nature of the magnitude scale for measuring earthquakes. It is not a 1-10 scale, for instance, even though literally all recorded earthquakes fall within that range. It is open-ended, and quakes of greater than magnitude 10 are technically possible, but not likely from terrestrial origin. It would take the impact of an asteroid miles across to cause a quake larger than about 9.5 on the magnitude scale.

The biggest confusion concerns the relative size of quakes. Magnitude is a measure of the energy released when an earthquake strikes. A magnitude 9 quake is not just a little bit bigger than a magnitude 8. It is exponentially larger, by a factor of 32.  To put it a different way, a magnitude 9 quake releases an amount of energy that is equivalent to 32 magnitude 8 earthquakes!

It gets worse: Since a 9 is 32 times more than an 8, and an 8 is 32 times bigger than a 7, a magnitude 9 quake is more than 1000 times larger than a 7 (32x32).

A magnitude 9 quake is the energy equivalent of more than 1,000 magnitude 7 earthquakes...

Put another way: the Japan 9.0 quake released more energy than all of California's historical earthquakes combined.

The story is pretty much the same with the total number of earthquakes. California has a great many smaller quakes, but just about any subduction zone around the world has more. Even in the United States, Alaska has more earthquakes than California (as well as the second-largest earthquake ever recorded in the world, the 9.3 magnitude Good Friday quake of 1964).

So why does California get this reputation of having an inordinate number of earthquakes? I feel compelled to blame the way news is reported in this country. Cable and local news coverage of earthquakes is atrocious for the most part, with badly misinformed reporters and news-readers (I don't consider them to be news anchors or journalists anymore). There is a tendency to display blood and gore over actual conditions on the ground. The media will spend weeks talking about an earthquake in Los Angeles or San Francisco that kills a few people and practically ignore monumental tragedies in Pakistan or Iran where tens of thousands of people have died.

As mentioned above, there is one wild card in the possibility of large earthquakes hitting California. The state does in fact have a subduction zone that is active north of Fortuna and Eureka. It is part of the Cascadia subduction zone that threatens Oregon and Washington. There is good evidence that a magnitude 9 earthquake took place along the system in 1700, and there is no reason to think that the fault system is any less dangerous now.

An offset curb on the Calaveras fault in Hollister, CA. It isn't the San Andreas...

Question #4: In an earthquake, the ground opens up and swallows people: true or false?

True, but only in Hollywood....

Indeed, it is a staple that if an earthquake happens in a movie, somebody is going to be hanging by their fingernails on the edge of a vast deep chasm that has opened up beneath their feet. In the third Indiana Jones movie, for instance, and in last year's 2012, again, and again, and again. And again.

For the reality-based world, the possibility of being swallowed up in the earth during an earthquake is far more unlikely. The problem is that earthquakes are generated by the stress built up along fault lines where vast blocks of rocky crust are in contact. The shaking begins when the rocks rupture and begin slipping. They don't separate. In some faults (thrusts) the stress is compressional and in others (strike-slip) the stress is lateral. Not much chance of openings occurring in either situation. The third type of fault, termed normal faulting, the stress is extensional, which could conceivably result in the stretching of the crust and formation of fissures, but more often, one side slips downward, as can be seen in the picture below, from the 1954 Fairview Peak earthquake in Nevada.

It is true that small fissures will open along fault ruptures in some situations. I saw many of these when I visited the Landers area a week after the 7.3 magnitude earthquake in 1992. The fissures were only a few inches across and no more than a foot or so in depth. Geologist Mary Hill does mention one instance where someone was killed in a fissure that opened up in a 1948 quake in Japan, but that hardly represents a pattern.

One other effect of large earthquakes is the production of slope failures and landslides, during which large fissures might open up. The Turnagain Heights liquefaction event during the Alaska earthquake of 1964 is a stunning example. Weak saturated sediments underneath the housing project were severely shaken, causing the whole landscape to break up and flow towards the adjacent bay, destroying the dwellings at the surface (I've included two pictures derived from my old slide collection, but I'm afraid I don't know who to attribute them to; I will add credit if someone can clue me in. They may be from a USGS collection).

In the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, there were not any claims of swallowed people that I know of, but there is the famous tail/tale of Shafter's cow, which was swallowed up by the San Andreas fault. In the aftermath, only the poor bovine's tail could be seen at the surface. The story apparently became widespread, but in a letter from 1966, some locals recalled that the poor cow had actually died the night before. The earthquake produced a convenient fissure, the farmer tossed in the carcass, and when reporters showed up asking questions about the poor animal, farmer Shafter decided not to kill a "good story".

Question 5: Psychics predict earthquakes: true or false?

Comic art by Zeo (with slight modifications by Geotripper)

Well, let's see if I can't make a few (seismic) waves here.

My audiences and readers are skeptics and non-believers, to be frank, and usually come down firmly in favor of "false" for an answer. So they are a little surprised when I tell them the actual answer:

TRUE!

Think about it a moment, and you will realize that the statement is in fact true. Psychics predict earthquakes all the time. All the time, and then some more. Earthquakes are one of their most common predictions, more popular I think than predictions about aliens.

That leads to a revised question: Do psychic predictions about earthquakes come true?

My readers are usually onto me by now, and they will say that psychic predictions are invariably wrong. I set them straight. I say "Psychics predict earthquakes all the time, and are almost invariably correct".

I support my contention with a collection of predictions that I googled in about five minutes. I refuse to link to each of them because I have no interest in promoting their websites. If you want to find them, google the statement and it shouldn't take long to dig them up.

• Both earthquake and out of control fires will effect California causing devastation and loss [of] life. 
• There will be a violent earthquake, one of the strongest on record.[no location noted]
• My California earthquake prediction: yes, there WILL be an earthquake in California. I am not saying it will be along the San Andreas Fault or that it will be major. …I am also not saying when.
• I keep seeing the year 2011 like a pulsating animation within visions of major earth shifts in my home state of California. Dates perceived in months or years could be argued to have limited value in forecasting a time because we psychics move our consciousness in large spans of time and cover broad areas of locations and events.

Note how every one of these predictions came true. Oh, and my favorite, the shotgun prediction....

Wild Weather Predictions

1. Category five hurricane wipes out Miami.
2. The worst mudslides in California’s history will occur.
3. Mount St. Helens erupting.
4. Earthquake Seattle, Washington.
5. Earthquake Chicago, Illinois.
6. Part of the polar ice cap melts.
7. Wildfires spread to Beverley Hills and Los Angeles, Brentwood.
8. More tsunamis Sumatra Indonesia, Alaska, Hawaii and Japan.
9. A great earthquake in Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego.
10. Earthquake Lake Tahoe.
11. Earthquake Toronto and Quebec.
12. Earthquake Oregon.
13. Earthquake Grand Canyon.
14. Earthquake New York, Alaska, Japan, Greece.
15. Earthquake British Columbia, China and Iran.
16. Tornado in California.
17. Floods Amsterdam, Holland, Rhine River, Germany, Bangladesh, Great Britain. Venice, Italy, Gulf Coast of Florida and France.
18. Tsunami Malibu, California.
19. Wildfires Greece, Australia, Texas, Hawaii.
20. Mudslides in India, California.
21. Typhoon in Taiwan.
22. Tornadoes Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas, Illinois, Tennessee.
23. Great earthquake Rome and Naples, Italy.
24. Huge snowstorm and blizzards up the eastern seaboard affecting the great lakes – Toronto, Chicago, New York, Boston, etc.
25. Earthquake Yosemite and Yellowstone Park.

Note how many of these predictions haven't happened yet. Still, many will absolutely take place, allowing the psychic responsible for this list to claim broad success in his or her psychic powers.

Soooo...psychics accurately predict earthquakes. Well, guess what? I can predict earthquakes too! And I can be more specific than the average psychic. Here goes..

I predict that within the next week:

• 200 earthquakes will occur in California,
• Of these, there will be a magnitude 4 quake in southern California, most likely in the Colorado Desert near Salton Sea.
• There will be a magnitude 3 earthquake in northern California, most likely north of the Bay Area, somewhere around Clear Lake.
• There will be a larger quake at the Vanuatu Islands in the Pacific Ocean, quite possibly in the magnitude 6 range.
• There will be a magnitude 5 earthquake offshore of Japan.

I think I am going to be right. You are welcome to keep count and when the quakes happen you can hail me as a psychic earthquake predictor.

You can do that, but please note that my predictions have something in common with psychic predictions: the predictions are totally and absolutely useless to anybody.  They are about as useful as predicting that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. Why? Because like the sun rising, earthquakes happen all the time, and they tend to happen in the same general places, mainly along tectonic plate boundaries (along with a few near hot spots like Hawaii or Yellowstone). It sounds impressive that 200 earthquakes will happen over the next week in California, but that happens nearly every week.

Earthquake prediction is a serious business. On the one hand, a timely prediction can save lives. But a prediction made by a credible source that doesn't come to pass is a real problem. Like the boy who called "wolf" once too often, later predictions would be ignored. Charlatans who make spurious predictions can cause panic and unnecessary stress in an uninformed population (such a prediction in 1990 caused the population of St. Louis and surrounding region to close down businesses and leave town, and also caused a media circus).

An earthquake prediction, in order to save lives, must have three elements:

• the time (within a few days at most)
• the location (specific)
• the magnitude and depth

No psychic ever provides such information, which proves the useless nature of their "predictions". No one is in a position to predict earthquakes with such precision, including seismologists. Anyone who claims some special power of prediction is lying or deluded. No one has ever once saved lives with such predictions (the one successful prediction,ever, of a quake that saved lives, in China in 1975, was based on tangible evidence, and no psychic powers were claimed or invoked).

Psychics: give up the earthquakes. Stick to the lives of the Hollywood stars. They're more predictable anyway.

Question 5 B: Animals predict earthquakes...true or false?

My answer to this one?

??? Who knows???

The problem is perceived cause and effect. Many people who experience strong earthquakes recall strange behaviour by their animals, and link that behaviour to the quake. The problem is that animals may behave strangely in many circumstances that are not followed by a strong earthquake, but the behaviour is not noticed or remarked.

This animal is clearly predicting an earthquake. Or is about to attack.

The other problem is how to quantify strange acts by animals. What specific animal behaviour constitutes a prediction of an earthquake? At what point do authorities declare that animals have predicted a quake?

There are many anecdotal stories about unusual activity by animals going back hundreds of years, so I for one cannot completely dismiss the idea out of hand. Animals sense the world differently than humans, and there could in fact be some sort of electromagnetic or vibrational effect that researchers have not yet detected.

A reasonable response on earthquakes and animal behaviour by the U.S. Geological Survey can be read here, and a good article by the National Geographic can be found here. Geologists around the world have been following a story coming out of Italy regarding the failure of seismologists for failing to predict or warn the local populace before a deadly earthquake in Italy that killed several hundred people in 2009. It's one thing to say geologists can't predict earthquakes, and quite another to say they didn't predict it enough in the aftermath. Seismologists walk a fine line.

Speaking of kitties and strange behaviour, if you see these eyes, run for your life. Aliens have taken over your cat's soul....

Comic art by Zeo

Question 6: In California, we are waiting for the BIG ONE! True or False??

When I talk to groups about this question, I make sure to say "the BIG ONE" in capital letters. How do you say something in capital letters? You do it in a deep baritone voice with your hand cupping the microphone; it's very dramatic.

So what is the answer? Well, actually the question is wrong and requires a bit of modification. Let's try it again, and in that deep baritone voice:

In California, we are waiting for the BIG ONES!

There, that's better. If we can't predict earthquakes, then how can this statement be possible? Doesn't it require the ability to predict earthquakes? Yes, it does. So the statement must be false. But it is not. The answer is TRUE!

Predicting earthquakes is not possible in the short term, as in hours or days, but a great deal can be said about the probability of earthquakes in a particular area over a period of decades. We can do this on the basis of the historical and prehistorical record of earthquakes along a particular fault zone, and by analysis of building stresses and tilting over a large region, as revealed by GPS stations and other related technology Check out the methodology of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities in this USGS PDF file.

As can be found on the map above, numerous fault zones represent a threat to the state of California. The fault zones are of different lengths, and therefore some will produce smaller quakes, but several are capable of producing large shocks approaching magnitude 7, and maybe even larger. These include the San Jacinto fault, the Owens Valley fault, the Hayward and Calaveras faults, and others. Even more important is the fact that the San Andreas itself is not a single monolithic fault zone. It has segments that behave independently. This was shown in 1857 and 1906, when completely different sections of the fault gave way, producing shocks that approached magnitude 8.

The most recently published studies show that earthquakes of 6.7 magnitude or greater are a virtual certainty over the next 30 years. The chance for an even greater quake is ominous, exceeding 70% for a magnitude 7.0, and a lesser, but still significant chance of even larger events. In a way, one of these quakes has already occurred, even though it was just south of the state: the El Mayor-Cucapah quake this year in northern Baja California was a magnitude 7.2 event.

Another wild card is the possibility of a large quake along the Cascadia subduction zone in the northernmost part of the state. It was not included in the probabilities, but numerous magnitude 7 quakes have taken place in that region in recent decades.

The lesson to be drawn from these predictions is that damaging earthquakes have happened all over California, and they will continue to do so in the future. Some of these quakes will be major events, causing many deaths and massive damage over large areas. The probability forecasts have great value in the sense that they are a warning to residents across the the state to be prepared at all times for earthquakes. We cannot know the precise moment that a large earthquake will strike, but we do know where they will happen, and how big they can be.