The Plot by Geologists Has Succeeded: You are Ready for the BIG ONE

Note: Please accept that this is tongue-in-cheek semi-parody, and is in no way meant to minimize the viral pandemic that is deeply affecting our society. Please take all appropriate measures to prevent the spread of the virus...

The long years of planning and the endless meetings in secret have finally borne fruit. The geologists have finally prepared American society for the BIG ONE (the BIG earthquake, the BIG volcanic eruption, the BIG hurricane). Straight-forward education didn't work, since no one read the reams of information put out by the hard-working geologists, so we finally had to use the arrival of the Covid-19 virus to make our point: disasters will happen and we have to be ready for them.

It's unfortunate that people had to panic and go running into stores to buy up huge amounts of materials basically unrelated to the virus: the bottled water, the paper towels, the non-perishable foods. But through the power of suggestion, we geologists managed to get people to buy just the kinds of things one would need in the aftermath of a major quake when help and assistance by emergency workers might be days or weeks away.

There is nothing that makes a geologist cringe more than a government official saying something along the lines of “It’s an unforeseen problem. … Came out of nowhere.”. That's almost never true. Every government official has all kinds of emergency planning materials available to them, and presidents have entire government bureaucracies designed to prepare for emergencies and disasters. Unless they disband them, as happened to the White House’s National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense in 2018. Many people no longer remember the words of Bobby Jindal in 2009 in a response to a State-of-the-Union address, but geologists will always remember: he was complaining about “$140 million for something called volcano monitoring. Instead of monitoring volcanoes, what Congress should be monitoring is the eruption of spending in Washington, D.C.".

It has been interesting (and terrifying) to watch the response of people to the pandemic. Millions didn't take it seriously and continued life as normal. Some understood the warnings of the epidemiologists and started making preparations, buying reasonable amounts of cleaning supplies and disinfectants. It has been a slow-motion disaster that unfolded over several months. Volcanic disasters may be similar; eruptions have precursors that can last for months.

But earthquakes will come on suddenly and without warning. And unlike with the pandemic, the infrastructure of society will be severely compromised. It won't be stores with empty shelves...it will be stores in ruins. The electricity will go off, and with it the faucets and toilets won't have water. The hospitals won't be overwhelmed over a period of days or weeks, they be inundated all at once if they are functioning at all. It's in those kinds of moments that having water, food and emergency first aid supplies can be the difference between a good or bad outcome during a disaster.

There will be some important differences. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are regional, not national disasters. The infrastructure will be destroyed in some places, but will be functioning in others. Because of this, it won't take all that long for emergency workers to begin arriving from outlying areas where the damage isn't so bad.

There is one other really big difference when these geologic disasters strike: we won't be constrained by 'social distancing'. We'll be available to help each other out. Remember the words of Fred Rogers:

For me, as for all children, the world could have come to seem a scary place to live. But I felt secure with my parents, and they let me know that we were safely together whenever I showed concern about accounts of alarming events in the world. There was something else my mother did that I’ve always remembered: “Always look for the helpers,” she’d tell me. “There’s always someone who is trying to help.” I did, and I came to see that the world is full of doctors and nurses, police and firemen, volunteers, neighbors and friends who are ready to jump in to help when things go wrong. 

Strive to be one of the helpers in all that is to come.

For more on earthquake preparedness, especially in the Bay Area, check out:
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf

Is the Second Coming...Coming Because of an Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest?

No, it's not real, it's a photoshopped hoax after the Indonesia tsunami of 2004

Geotripper stands bravely on the coast of the Pacific Northwest, camera and binoculars in hand, ready to liveblog the end of the world during the apocalyptic earthquake that is going to happen SOON. Well, okay, I'm actually visiting with family, but if anything happens earthquake-wise, I will let you know.

I want to tread lightly here, because I'm not in the business of attacking anyone's religious beliefs. But I do want to provide some perspective to counter the kinds of headlines I've been seeing in the aftermath of an excellent piece in the New Yorker (please click here to read it; it's worth your time) concerning the potential for a large earthquake in the Pacific Northwest, one which will cause catastrophic damage to the infrastructure of the region and possibly kill 16,000 or 17,000 people.

I get a bit tired of the predictable hype that follows such viral stories. The idea that the Pacific Northwest will "be destroyed" by the earthquake feeds into the fears of people who have been reading too many headlines like this one:

"Jesus’s Prophecy Of Massive Earthquakes Is Now Confirmed As Fox News Reports Of A Mega-Quake To Soon Destroy U.S. Pacific Northwest Triggering Christ’s Soon Coming"

It's a real headline from the internet, but you'll have to Google it. I don't want to provide them with any more publicity than they've already gotten with their irresponsible hyperbole (and just how did FOX news end up in that title?).

The Great Wave at Kanagawa (from a Series of Thirty–Six Views of Mount Fuji), Edo period (1615–1868), ca. 1831–33  Katsushika Hokusai (Japanese, 1760–1849).

Here's the thing. This earthquake, should it happen in our lifetime, will be a horrible catastrophic event. But it will also be a natural event that is predictable with certain limits, follows the natural rules of physics and geology, and has happened numerous times in the past, most notably in the year 1700. Our understanding of the dynamics of this potential earthquake is one of the great detective stories in the science of geology, as the New Yorker article points out. 

USGS Simulation of tsunami pattern from 1700 Cascadia earthquake

It is not some kind of supernatural event that is planned to herald the second coming of Christ. I arrive at this conclusion because it is arrogant for Americans to think that a natural disaster that happens to us and results from well-known geological processes is somehow different from other natural disasters that have happened elsewhere and will continue to happen long into the future. Let look at some examples of earthquakes in the past (source is from the US Geological Survey via Live Science).

Date Location Deaths Magnitude Comments January 23, 1556 China, Shansi 830,000 ~8 Damage up to 270 miles away July 27, 1976 China, Tangshan 255,000 (official) 655,000 (estimated) 7.5 Estimated death toll as high as 655,000. Dec. 26, 2004 Sumatra, Indonesia 227,898 9.1 Deaths from earthquake and tsunami August 9, 1138 Syria, Aleppo 230,000 n/a   Jan. 12, 2010 Haiti 222,570 7.0 1.3 million displaced. May 22, 1927 China, near Xining 200,000 7.9 Large fractures. December 22, 856+ Iran, Damghan 200,000 n/a   December 16, 1920 China, Gansu 200,000 8.6 Major fractures, landslides. March 23, 893 Iran, Ardabil 150,000     September 1, 1923 Japan, Kanto (Kwanto) 143,000 7.9 Great Tokyo fire. October 5, 1948 USSR (Turkmenistan, Ashgabat) 110,000 7.3   December 28, 1908 Italy, Messina 70,000 to 100,000 (estimated) 7.2 Deaths from earthquake and tsunami. September, 1290 China, Chihli 100,000 n/a   May 12, 2008 Sichuan, China 87,586 7.9 More than 45.5 million affected Oct. 8, 2005 Pakistan 85,000 7.6 More than 69,000 injured November, 1667 Caucasia, Shemakha 80,000     November 18, 1727 Iran, Tabriz 77,000 n/a   November 1, 1755 Portugal, Lisbon 70,000 8.7 Great tsunami. December 25, 1932 China, Gansu 70,000 7.6   May 31, 1970 Peru 66,000 7.9 $530,000,000 damage, great rock slide, floods. 1268 Asia Minor, Silicia 60,000 n/a   January 11, 1693 Italy, Sicily 60,000     May 30, 1935 Pakistan, Quetta 30,000 to 60,000 7.5 Quetta almost completely destroyed. February 4, 1783 Italy, Calabria 50,000     June 20, 1990 Iran 50,000 7.7 Landslides. SOURCE: USGS

The question I have for the hucksters and frauds on the internet and elsewhere: what gives you the right to decide that a particular earthquake is somehow a harbinger of the religious end of the world? People throughout history have found it far too convenient to blame natural disasters on the perceived moral failings of those who were most affected. It's not an old tribal thing either. Pat Robertson tried to blame the Haiti quake on the Haitians themselves. It's truly disgusting.

I suspect I'm mostly preaching to the choir here, to use a religious metaphor, but if you happen to have stumbled onto this site while tracking down biblical prophecies, please consider something as you do your research: If an event has happened many times before, is predicted by science to happen many times again, then it doesn't really fall into the realm of supernatural judgement. It's the Earth doing what it has been doing for a very long time. If the death tolls from natural disasters seem to be rising, it is because more and more people are being forced to live in ever more dangerous and marginal environments.

Just because bad things happen to human beings doesn't mean they are being punished by a capricious god. Earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis and other disasters are part of living on the Earth, and they happen to the good, the bad, and the ugly alike.