Out of America's Never-Never: Two Weeks on the Colorado Plateau

Sunrise in Goblin Valley State Park, Utah

Say Never-Never Land and most people immediately think of Peter Pan and Captain Hook, but the term has an older meaning of which J.M. Barrie was probably unaware. The Never Never is a remote and largely inaccessible part of the Northern Territory and Queensland of Australia's Outback. To some, it is a place that one would "never, never" want to go (despite this neat-sounding trip). To some of those who live there, it is a place one would never, never want to leave.

I see many parallels between Australia's Outback and the American Southwest, especially the Colorado Plateau. Most of the local populations live on the margins of the region, and until recent decades anyway, many parts remained unexplored by people of European descent. To others it has been home for thousands of years. The lands are ancient, each revealing a fascinating geological story.

So welcome to America's Never Never. I've just returned from my latest journey through the wonderful landscapes of the Colorado Plateau, and although we mostly followed modern highways, we could sense the isolation and wildness that is still inherent to this country. I hope you will enjoy the journey over the next few weeks in pictures and stories.

Mesa Arch in Canyonlands National Park, Utah

Queensland's Flooding: Thank Goodness It Can't Happen Here...Eh...Right? Think Again...

Before you read anything else in this particular blog, go to the BBC news and look at 3 minutes and 46 seconds of stunning pictures of the extraordinary flooding this season in Queensland, Australia. The amount of water on the ground in the normally dry landscape is almost beyond belief. The BBC mentions a vast inland sea the size of France and Germany combined. My heart goes out to those in the midst of the disaster. This was an unusual train of meteorological events that ended a long drought, and culminated in the arrival of Cyclone Yasi, a category 5 hurricane. It will take weeks for the waters to subside, and years for the region to fully recover.

Not Australia, this is flood stage on our own San Joaquin in 2006

Seeing events like this unfold on television or on the computer screen can provide a certain emotional distance from the full magnitude of what has happened. Thoughts develop along the lines of "Could it happen here?" and as we realize it might, we think "Are we prepared for an event like that?" Floods occur essentially everywhere, but as I am based in California, my ears perk up whenever I hear about unfolding events along the Pacific coast. We had a pretty wild time of it in the last two months with serious floods in a number of areas, especially in southern California. It makes one wonder how bad it could possibly get. Pretty bad, as it turns out.

Those pesky climate experts have been analyzing the possibilities that California could be hit by a devastating storm sequence that could leave much of the Central Valley as an inland lake. It sounds unlikely, at best a hypothetical model, but it has actually already happened. In 1861-62, a storm series dropped so much precipitation that a 300 mile long lake covered the valley, and forced the state capital to move operations from Sacramento to San Francisco for a time.

I mentioned Yellowstone in a recent post, and it got me thinking once again about those things that are worth worrying about, those that are not, and those that are worth preparing for. Yellowstone last had an eruption 70,000 years ago, and the last major "supervolcano" (i.e. rhyolite caldera event) was more than 600,000 years ago. So how much should we worry about Yellowstone? It could happen, but not likely any time soon. But people are freaked out about the possibility if a quick internet search is any measure. They obsess about it, and even see strange conspiracies.

But what about a "superstorm"? People don't seem to worry about flooding so much, yet huge floods are a disturbingly common occurrence. Besides 1862, evidence has been uncovered of similar intense events in 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605 (sediments from storm runoff are preserved in ocean basins offshore of the state). That adds up to around a 0.3% possibility in a given year; not common, but enough that emergency providers are beginning to seriously consider the possible effects. There was a bit of a stir in the geoblogosphere a few weeks ago about a report from the US Geological Survey about the potential for an atmospheric river storm they have termed an ARkStorm (Atmospheric River Storm). The possible effects make California's expected "Big One" earthquake look, well, medium in comparison. From the USGS ARkStorm Report (PDF download here - 46 mb):

The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.

Flooding rarely gets the epic movie treatment. Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are so sudden and devastating; rising water just doesn't cut it as a drama setting. I haven't seen a lot of Katrina movies yet. But life isn't a movie. If you live in California, think for a moment about getting hit with a superstorm, and the delta and Central Valley ending up like this:It is a real possibility and a sobering thought....

By the way, not wanting to stir the pot (or maybe I do), if you are worried about Yellowstone erupting and you live in California, why aren't you giving more thought to our very own active rhyolite caldera, our "supervolcano"?

Maps and second photo from the USGS ARkStorm Report (PDF - 46 mb)

Cyclone Yasi about to hit Queensland

For in-depth info on Cyclone Yasi, which is about to hit Queensland, please check out Geology in Motion and the usual news sources. It's going to be a horrific affair, and my heart goes out to those in the path, especially since it's been only a few weeks since the record-breaking flooding in the general region. This is a huge storm coming in, a category 5 cyclone ("hurricanes" in the northern hemisphere). It's one thing to hear about such extraordinary events hitting some place far away, but it's another if you've seen the place, and if you have relatives near by. I visited Cairns and Port Douglas a few years ago, and had a wonderful time, and met some wonderful people. They are in my prayers...
Australia is generally seen as a dry continent, with vast desert vistas, but the northeast coast extends into the tropics and includes some unique and extraordinary rainforests. We took a railway to Kuranda (admittedly a tourist magnet, but a nice place to visit), and passed the mostly dry Barron River Falls (large hydroelectric dams upstream). The barren rock suggest the falls must be spectacular when full.

The other spectacular locality was the extraordinary Great Barrier Reef, which will no doubt suffer some serious damage as the storm surge rushes towards shore. They do the tours quite well, and we were able to snorkel and take a mini-sub tour of the reefs themselves. I count the experience as one of the pivotal events of my geologic life. It was like going back in time to the vast reefs of Paleozoic time that once covered large areas of the American west. It's one thing to see the quiet echo of fossilized life in the rocks and another to see the reefs full of life in the present day.

I wish and pray for the best for the people of the Queensland Coast. Earthquakes may be terrifying because they are so unexpected, but it may be worse knowing what is out there, and having to just wait. There's only so much one can do to prepare for such unprecedented events.

Impressive video of Flash Flooding in Queensland

Check out this incredible video of flash flooding in Queensland, which came to my attention courtesy of Yorrike on Twitter. A couple of thoughts on the event: As I watched, I thought "why aren't these people moving their cars out of the way?". Of course, hindsight is wonderful, and one can't know how bad the flood is going to be until one's car is floating away. Then again, midway through the video, a fellow is seen moving his car, and I suddenly realized how unwise that could have been, given how easily the other cars floated away.

On a sedimentary note, at the end the cars display imbrication, which is something pebbles do in a stream that allows us to see which way water was flowing (a paleocurrent indicator). I can't tell if the cars are oriented correctly, but the similarity to the cobbles below is striking. This picture is from Andrew Alden's About Geology Page, and this link is a good place to find out about imbrication.

Postscript:
The person who posted this video notes the following on his Youtube page:
With the incredible exposure that my video is receiving all over the internet and media worldwide I would like to encourage you to donate to the relief appeals.

You can donate to the Queensland Government Appeal at: http://www.qld.gov.au/floods/donate.html

Or the Churches of Christ Care Queensland Flood Appeal here:
http://care.cofcqld.com.au/site/docs/...

Please pray for us. There are many people who are suffering through this.