The Great Shakeout is planned for Oct. 16, 2025, at 10:16 AM.
And why aren't you doing it now?!
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| Art by Zeo |
NOTE: THIS IS HYPOTHETICAL, NOT A REAL PREDICTION!
It is reported that there is a 50% chance that your region is going to be hit with a magnitude 7.5 earthquake within the next four days. What are the most important things you would do in response to this prediction? What questions would you ask?
This is an exercise I do with my students and their responses are quite extensive, and exceedingly logical. They speak of storing up water and food supplies, checking their first aid kits, preparing family emergency plans, and oftentimes, evacuating the region and getting away from the quake damage.
They are great ideas, but some thoughts arise as they consider their options...
- If people know an earthquake is coming, there would be chaos in stores as people hoard up emergency supplies. Remember the shortages during the Covid epidemic. Or any hurricane in the last few years.
- Traffic will be horrific, and where exactly would hundreds of thousands, or even millions of people go?
- And...how many people would actually question the source of the prediction and its reliability. Predications have caused panic in the past. We've never been able predict earthquakes on short notice before, so why would this prediction be different?
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| The San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plains of Southern California |
It's a real problem because millions of people in California and other parts of the country live with the threat of earthquakes. And few of them have given thought to what they would do, and they are not in any prepared for an actual catastrophe. How many people have stored up emergency water and food supplies, and how many actually have an emergency plan?
So my response to my students is this:
We cannot know precisely when an earthquake will strike, nor where. We know the potential for earthquakes for many areas, especially in California, and in many cases have a broad idea about the probability of a quake taking place within a few years or decades.
If you live in area with possible earthquake activity, you must prepare beforehand. Otherwise you'll be a victim. The California Earthquake Authority has lots of information about how to prepare, but let my students give you the short list:
- Become familiar with the risk of quakes where you live. Know what possible level of magnitude and shaking you could face.
- Have emergency supplies of water and nonperishable food sufficient for at least a week
- Have a first aid kit handy and know how to use it (emergency services will be overwhelmed)
- Consider how you will deal with the loss of power, phone service, and water for at least week
- Have a go-bag of clothing, medicines, important documents in your vehicle or at least close at hand (a good idea for many kinds of emergencies)
- Have an emergency plan in place for all members of your household
Be prepared!!